Budget talk optimism spurs Wall Street rally

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks bounced higher for a second consecutive session on Monday as investors were encouraged by the early atmosphere surrounding talks to tackle the nation's fiscal crunch.

Stronger-than-expected earnings from Lowe's and Tyson Foods, as well as encouraging housing data, also contributed to the market's advance. Tyson and Lowe's were the top two percentage gainers on the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 is up more than 2 percent in the last two sessions as rhetoric from legislators over the weekend suggests a deal could be reached to stave off the looming "fiscal cliff," a series of tax and spending changes that will begin to take effect in the new year. The two sides are still far apart in negotiations, however.

The benchmark S&P index had fallen 5.3 percent between Election Day and Friday's rebound, as investors took the opportunity to sell stocks - including some of the year's best performers - just in case Washington cannot come to an agreement and taxes on dividends and capital gains rise in 2013.

"Everyone is quietly breathing a sigh of relief, because frankly, we are no longer looking over the edge of a cliff, we are looking at an opportunity to step back and recalibrate," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.

However, the rebound could be a short-lived reprieve from the sharp declines and market volatility could still rise, depending on progress in negotiations. A number of sectors were considered oversold on a technical basis - suggesting a buying opportunity.

"There is no question, what lit the fuse was constructive conversation, constructive talking points out of Washington that has done far more to help the market than anything else - the backdrop is the oversold" market, Kenny said.

Monday's advance marked the biggest percentage gain for the S&P 500 since November 6, when the European Central Bank announced a new bond-buying program aimed at containing the region's debt crisis.

Shares of Lowe's Cos Inc , the world's No. 2 home improvement chain, jumped 6.2 percent to $33.96 to hit a 52-week high after the company reported higher-than-expected quarterly profit and raised its full-year sales forecast.

Home improvement chains tend to benefit as housing strengthens. U.S. home resales unexpectedly increased in October, while separate data showed homebuilder sentiment rose to its highest level in over six years in November.

The PHLX Housing Index <.hgx> rose 1.8 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> gained 207.65 points, or 1.65 percent, at 12,795.96. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 27.01 points, or 1.99 percent, at 1,386.89. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was up 62.94 points, or 2.21 percent, at 2,916.07.

The S&P edged above its 200-day moving average at around 1,382, which has acted as a resistance level since a drop below the technically significant mark on November 8.

Tyson Foods Inc beat expectations and gave an upbeat forecast, sending its stock up 10.9 percent to $18.72.

Intel shares edged higher, up 0.3 percent to $20.25 after the company said its chief executive will retire in May.

Commodities prices surged, boosting shares of resource companies. Freeport-McMoRan rose 4.1 percent to $38.28, while U.S. Steel rose 5.3 percent to $21.15. The S&P materials sector <.gspm> advanced 2.9 percent as the best performing of the 10 major S&P sectors.

Volume was light and is expected to remain so throughout the Thanksgiving Day holiday-shortened trading week, with about 6.14 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE MKT and Nasdaq, below the daily average of 6.49 billion.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declines on the NYSE by 2,678 to 350, while on the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners 1,949 to 521.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Dan Grebler)

Read More..

Asian shares rise on positive U.S. tone, yen slips

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares rose on Monday, boosted by a positive tone in U.S. equities last week, while the yen fell to a near seven-month low against the dollar on expectations a new government after next month's election in Japan may deliver more stimulus.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was up 0.5 percent, recovering from a nine-week low marked on Friday.

Australian shares <.axjo> rose 0.6 percent while South Korean shares <.ks11> opened 0.5 percent higher.

Japan's Nikkei average <.n225>, which bucked the broad Asian downtrend on Friday and surged 2.2 percent to a two-week closing high, opened up 1.3 percent. <.t/>

"The market bullish sentiment will continue today," said Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at Monex Inc, adding that sentiment had changed as trading volume hit an eight-month high on Friday and any short-term profit-taking would likely to be limited.

Speculation that the leader of the opposition Liberal Democratic Party, which is expected to win the December 16 elections, will call for more stimulus including further aggressive easing by the Bank of Japan also undermined the yen.

The dollar hit a near seven-month high against the yen at 81.55 yen on Monday.

The BOJ begins a two-day policy meeting on Monday, with the bank not expected to take fresh policy steps.

Aside from the Japanese politics, market players will eye ongoing negotiations by U.S. policymakers to avoid a budget crisis and European officials' meeting on Tuesday to discuss aid for debt-stricken Greece.

Hope that U.S. politicians would find common ground to steer clear of the "fiscal cliff" boosted U.S. stocks on Friday. European shares sank to a 3-1/2-month closing low, for their worst week since the end of May, on persistent concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and the euro zone debt crisis.

U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in over two months on Friday as skepticism over the U.S. budget talks drew some safe-haven bids.

On Friday, top lawmakers from both major U.S. political parties hinted at the possibility of a budget compromise that involves spending cuts and additional revenue, although they were short on details.

"The good news is the tone of Friday's White House meeting but the prospect of no agreement until at least mid-December fits our view that the two sides are starting negotiations from rather distant points," Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac bank in Sydney, said in a note.

"As such, there will be plenty of negative headlines in coming weeks that weigh on Treasury yields and boost USD, which is yet again trading like a safe haven even when the bad news is generated by the US."

The dollar eased 0.1 percent but remained near a two-month high of 81.455 hit on Friday against a basket of key currencies <.dxy>.

The euro inched up 0.1 percent to $1.2757, with traders eyeing whether euro zone finance ministers and International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Christine Lagarde would agree on how to make Greece's debt manageable.

"As the EU prepares a bundled aid package to avert a Greek default, headlines coming out of the meeting may fuel a relief rally in the euro, but we will maintain our bearish forecast for the single currency as the region faces a deepening recession," said David Song, currency analyst at DailyFX.

U.S. crude futures rose 0.8 percent to 87.65 a barrel. Oil prices rose on Friday as Israeli attacks on Gaza escalated conflict between Israel and Palestinians and stoked supply concerns.

(Additional reporting by Ian Chua in Sydney and Dominic Lau in Tokyo; Editing by Michael Perry)

Read More..

Wall Street Week Ahead: Going off "cliff" with a bungee cord

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The 1987 crash. The Y2K bug. The debt ceiling debacle of 2011.

All these events, in the end, turned out to be buying opportunities for stocks. So will the "fiscal cliff," some investors say as they watch favorite stocks tumble during the political give-and-take happening in Washington.

The first round of talks aimed at avoiding the "fiscal cliff" caused a temporary rise in equities on Friday, signaling Wall Street's recent declines could be a buying opportunity. The gains were small and sentiment remains weak, but it suggests hope for market bulls.

Though shares ended moderately higher on Friday, it was not enough to offset losses for the week. The S&P was down 1.5 percent, while both the Dow and the Nasdaq fell 1.8 percent.

The S&P 500 is down more than 5 percent in the seven sessions that followed President Barack Obama's re-election. Uncertainty arose as attention turned to Washington's task of dealing with mandated tax hikes and spending cuts that could take the U.S. economy back into recession.

Some see the market's move as an overreaction to hyperbolic headlines about policy gridlock in Washington, believing stocks may start to rebound in what should be a quiet few days ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday next Thursday.

"It just doesn't seem to make any sense that you suddenly wake up the day after the election and realize we've got a fiscal cliff," said Krishna Kumar, partner at New York hedge fund Goose Hollow Alpha Advisors.

Not long ago the S&P was on target for its second-best year in the last 10, riding a 17 percent advance in 2012. That's been halved to about 8 percent, which isn't bad but disappointing compared with just a month ago.

Investors have been selling the year's winners. Apple is down 25 percent from its peak above $700. General Electric is down 14 percent; Google has lost 16 percent. Overall, the stocks that make up the top 10 percent of performers in the month prior to Election Day have been the worst performers since, according to Bespoke Investment Group of Harrison, New York.

"I think it's a good opportunity to be long stocks at these levels," said Kumar.

Hikes on capital gains and dividend taxes are on the line, and Obama has dug in his heels on what he sees as a mandate to make the tax code more progressive.

He seems to have the upper hand in dealings with Congress because Republican lawmakers don't want to see tax rates increase, which is what will happen if no solution is found by the beginning of 2013. Republicans don't want to take the blame for driving the economy over the cliff.

The current crisis is similar to last year's fight to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, which led to the downgrade of the United States' top credit rating in early August 2011.

During the dealings, the S&P 500 lost 18.8 percent between its peak in July 2011 and its bottom in August. As the market slid, the political standoff badly hurt investors' confidence in Washington, setting off a spike in volatility.

In the end a deal was announced that raised the ceiling and put off longer-term fiscal decisions until January 1, 2013, setting the stage for today's "fiscal cliff" crisis.

After staying flat through September 2011, the S&P 500 jumped 31 percent between its October low and the end of March.

BUY THE DIP?

Gridlock in Washington and all that could possibly go wrong with the economy if a deal is not reached have grabbed the headlines, but the negotiations leave room for stock market gains. Congressional leaders said Friday they will work through the Thanksgiving holiday recess to find a solution.

"The debate over how to solve (the fiscal cliff) may be more productive than is commonly recognized," said Brad Lipsig, senior portfolio manager at UBS Financial Services in New York.

"The U.S. is facing a major debt overhang, and serious steps toward addressing it might ultimately be viewed as a positive for future growth," he said. "The market may recognize this and, after a time of hand wringing, recover from the concerns with a renewed sense of optimism."

The recent selling took the S&P 500's relative strength index - a technical measure of internal strength - below 30 this week, indicating the benchmark is oversold and due for a rebound.

The RSI in four of the 10 S&P sectors - utilities, telecoms, consumer staples and technology - is below 30 and the highest RSI reading, for the consumer discretionary sector, is below 40, suggesting a bounce is in store.

"What I want to do is what we did during the decline following the budget negotiations in the summer of 2011: The lower the stock market goes, the more I want to own stock," said Brian Reynolds, chief market strategist at New York-based Rosenblatt Securities.

"If we go off the cliff it will be with a bungee cord attached," he said.

KEEP CALM AND HEDGE

Volatility is expected to rise through the end of November and to spike in late December if no agreement on the fiscal cliff is reached in Congress. Alongside comes opportunity for those with high risk tolerance.

"Recently, volatility has increased in the market overall. You can't really pick it up in the VIX yet, but I think as we get through November, I think you're likely to see the VIX be at a relatively higher level," said Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston.

In 2011, the VIX averaged 19.2 in July and 35 in August. So far this month the average is 17.8 and it is expected to spike if negotiations on the cliff drag into late next month.

"Looking at the range of possibilities, I would say any of them would be better than sitting here waiting. I would even put going off the fiscal cliff in that category," said Jill Cuniff, president of Seattle-based Edge Asset Management Inc, which manages about $20 billion.

"But we don't believe Congress will let that happen; there's going to be some middle ground here."

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos and Jonathan Spincer, additional reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

Read More..

Wall Street Week Ahead: Going off "cliff" with a bungee cord

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The 1987 crash. The Y2K bug. The debt ceiling debacle of 2011.

All these events, in the end, turned out to be buying opportunities for stocks. So will the "fiscal cliff," some investors say as they watch favorite stocks tumble during the political give-and-take happening in Washington.

The first round of talks aimed at avoiding the "fiscal cliff" caused a temporary rise in equities on Friday, signaling Wall Street's recent declines could be a buying opportunity. The gains were small and sentiment remains weak, but it suggests hope for market bulls.

Though shares ended moderately higher on Friday, it was not enough to offset losses for the week. The S&P was down 1.5 percent, while both the Dow and the Nasdaq fell 1.8 percent.

The S&P 500 is down more than 5 percent in the seven sessions that followed President Barack Obama's re-election. Uncertainty arose as attention turned to Washington's task of dealing with mandated tax hikes and spending cuts that could take the U.S. economy back into recession.

Some see the market's move as an overreaction to hyperbolic headlines about policy gridlock in Washington, believing stocks may start to rebound in what should be a quiet few days ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday next Thursday.

"It just doesn't seem to make any sense that you suddenly wake up the day after the election and realize we've got a fiscal cliff," said Krishna Kumar, partner at New York hedge fund Goose Hollow Alpha Advisors.

Not long ago the S&P was on target for its second-best year in the last 10, riding a 17 percent advance in 2012. That's been halved to about 8 percent, which isn't bad but disappointing compared with just a month ago.

Investors have been selling the year's winners. Apple is down 25 percent from its peak above $700. General Electric is down 14 percent; Google has lost 16 percent. Overall, the stocks that make up the top 10 percent of performers in the month prior to Election Day have been the worst performers since, according to Bespoke Investment Group of Harrison, New York.

"I think it's a good opportunity to be long stocks at these levels," said Kumar.

Hikes on capital gains and dividend taxes are on the line, and Obama has dug in his heels on what he sees as a mandate to make the tax code more progressive.

He seems to have the upper hand in dealings with Congress because Republican lawmakers don't want to see tax rates increase, which is what will happen if no solution is found by the beginning of 2013. Republicans don't want to take the blame for driving the economy over the cliff.

The current crisis is similar to last year's fight to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, which led to the downgrade of the United States' top credit rating in early August 2011.

During the dealings, the S&P 500 lost 18.8 percent between its peak in July 2011 and its bottom in August. As the market slid, the political standoff badly hurt investors' confidence in Washington, setting off a spike in volatility.

In the end a deal was announced that raised the ceiling and put off longer-term fiscal decisions until January 1, 2013, setting the stage for today's "fiscal cliff" crisis.

After staying flat through September 2011, the S&P 500 jumped 31 percent between its October low and the end of March.

BUY THE DIP?

Gridlock in Washington and all that could possibly go wrong with the economy if a deal is not reached have grabbed the headlines, but the negotiations leave room for stock market gains. Congressional leaders said Friday they will work through the Thanksgiving holiday recess to find a solution.

"The debate over how to solve (the fiscal cliff) may be more productive than is commonly recognized," said Brad Lipsig, senior portfolio manager at UBS Financial Services in New York.

"The U.S. is facing a major debt overhang, and serious steps toward addressing it might ultimately be viewed as a positive for future growth," he said. "The market may recognize this and, after a time of hand wringing, recover from the concerns with a renewed sense of optimism."

The recent selling took the S&P 500's relative strength index - a technical measure of internal strength - below 30 this week, indicating the benchmark is oversold and due for a rebound.

The RSI in four of the 10 S&P sectors - utilities, telecoms, consumer staples and technology - is below 30 and the highest RSI reading, for the consumer discretionary sector, is below 40, suggesting a bounce is in store.

"What I want to do is what we did during the decline following the budget negotiations in the summer of 2011: The lower the stock market goes, the more I want to own stock," said Brian Reynolds, chief market strategist at New York-based Rosenblatt Securities.

"If we go off the cliff it will be with a bungee cord attached," he said.

KEEP CALM AND HEDGE

Volatility is expected to rise through the end of November and to spike in late December if no agreement on the fiscal cliff is reached in Congress. Alongside comes opportunity for those with high risk tolerance.

"Recently, volatility has increased in the market overall. You can't really pick it up in the VIX yet, but I think as we get through November, I think you're likely to see the VIX be at a relatively higher level," said Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston.

In 2011, the VIX averaged 19.2 in July and 35 in August. So far this month the average is 17.8 and it is expected to spike if negotiations on the cliff drag into late next month.

"Looking at the range of possibilities, I would say any of them would be better than sitting here waiting. I would even put going off the fiscal cliff in that category," said Jill Cuniff, president of Seattle-based Edge Asset Management Inc, which manages about $20 billion.

"But we don't believe Congress will let that happen; there's going to be some middle ground here."

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos and Jonathan Spincer, additional reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

Read More..

Wall Street ends flat as wary investors stay defensive

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were little changed on Thursday as the prospect of a drawn-out battle over impending tax and spending changes made investors wary of getting into the water, while retailer Wal-Mart tumbled after disappointing sales.

The S&P 500 is down nearly 2 percent for the week, adding to last week's selloff and eroding more of the market's gains for the year.

What had looked like a stellar 2012 for stocks has turned into merely an average year, and as 2012 draws to a close, investors are becoming more inclined to protect the gains they have.

The worry is the economy could contract again if no deal is reached in Washington to avoid the "fiscal cliff" - large, automatic budget cuts and tax hikes that begin to take effect in the new year.

Combined with the euro zone debt crisis, the uncertain outlook for corporations makes it hard to know how much a stock is worth, said Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates in Toledo, Ohio.

"Valuation is going to be uncertain because you don't know what the growth will be," said Lancz. "That is definitely not a good scenario for someone to step up to the plate and do a lot of buying."

The euro zone relapsed into its second recession since 2009 in the third quarter as the region was hurt by its debt problems.

Wal-Mart fell 3.6 percent to $68.72 and was the biggest drag on the Dow as frugal consumers hurt the company's quarterly sales.

Investors will be watching Friday's meeting at the White House between President Barack Obama and Republican and Democratic leaders of Congress over deficit reduction for any sign the two sides are moving closer.

The memory of last year's political impasse over raising the debt ceiling has also made analysts nervous.

"(There is) uncertainty of whether we're going to have a functioning government going forward. That is a weight that sits on markets right now," said Troy Logan, managing director and senior economist at Warren Financial Service in Exton, Pennsylvania.

Even if the economy avoids an outright recession, there are fears a lengthy political dispute could sap business investment and consumer spending.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> slipped 28.49 points, or 0.23 percent, to 12,542.46. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> lost 2.16 points, or 0.16 percent, to 1,353.33. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was off 9.87 points, or 0.35 percent, to 2,836.94.

The S&P 500 sunk to a 3 1/2-month closing low and was well below its 200-day moving average, which it pierced last week.

Data on Thursday showed new claims for unemployment benefits surged last week, while factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region unexpectedly shrank in November as the economy felt the effects of superstorm Sandy.

A flare-up in violence in the Middle East added to market unease as Israeli warplanes bombed targets in and around Gaza city for a second day, while two rockets fired from the Gaza Strip targeted Tel Aviv.

Apple Inc shares dragged the Nasdaq lower, falling 2.1 percent to $525.62 and down about 25 percent since September's high.

Also in the tech sector, shares of Dell Inc fell in after-hours trading after it reported revenue that was shy of Wall Street's expectations. Dell was down 2.2 percent at $9.35.

Target Corp bucked the trend, rising 1.7 percent to $62.44 after it reported a profit that beat expectations.

Volume was roughly 7.26 billion shares on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, topping the year-to-date average daily closing volume of around 6.5 billion.

Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by 2,069 to 975 on the New York Stock Exchange. Decliners also had the upper hand on the Nasdaq, outpacing advancers 1,506 to 948.

(Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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Wall Street drops on deficit, Middle East concerns

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks slid on Wednesday with declines accelerating after President Barack Obama set up a drawn-out fight over the fiscal cliff when he stuck to his pledge to raise taxes on the wealthy, and as violence increased in the Middle East.

Obama, in his first press conference since re-election, held to his position that marginal tax rates will have to rise to tackle the nation's deficits.

With talks over solving the U.S. "fiscal cliff" in early stages, investors are reacting to the uncertainty by shedding positions.

"I think we will have a last-minute cliffhanger solution," said Michael Cheah, portfolio manager at SunAmerica Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey, about a deal to avoid the so-called cliff.

"In the meantime, the market is going to get punched every day."

Without a deal, a series of mandated tax hikes and spending cuts will start to take effect early next year that could push the U.S. economy into a recession.

Taxes on capital gains and dividends could rise as part of the negotiations, pushing investors to sell this year and pay lower taxes on their gains.

Adding to the selling pressure, Israel launched a major offensive against Palestinian militants in Gaza, killing the military commander of Hamas in an air strike and threatening an invasion of the enclave. Egypt said it recalled its ambassador from Israel in response.

"We know Europe's in trouble, China's slowing down ... and now you've got the Middle East flaring up again. It's all hitting at once, and obviously, the market is taking a 'sell first, ask questions later' approach," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati.

Industrial shares led the decline, dragged lower in part by a 1 percent spike in crude prices after the Israeli offensive on Gaza. The S&P industrial sector index <.gspi> fell 2.5 percent.

Wall Street had opened higher after Dow component Cisco Systems Inc reported first-quarter earnings and revenue late Tuesday that beat expectations, driving its stock up 4.8 percent to $17.66. But the positive momentum was short-lived.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> fell 185.23 points, or 1.45 percent, to 12,570.95 at the close. The S&P 500 <.spx> dropped 19.04 points, or 1.39 percent, to 1,355.49. The Nasdaq Composite <.ixic> lost 37.08 points, or 1.29 percent, to 2,846.81.

Both the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq ended at their lowest levels since late June.

The S&P 500 has fallen 5.1 percent in the six sessions since election night. Wednesday marked the benchmark index's lowest close since July 25.

The Russell 2000 <.rut> tumbled 2 percent. The Dow Jones Transportation average <.djt> slid 2.6 percent. FedEx Corp shares dropped 3.7 percent to $87.12. Bank of America shares lost 3.6 percent to $8.99.

In contrast, Facebook shares jumped 12.6 percent to $22.36 as investors were relieved that expiring trading restrictions on a huge block of shares did not trigger an immediate wave of insider selling.

Teen clothing retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co jumped 34.4 percent to $41.92 after the company reported unexpectedly improved third-quarter results and a full-year outlook that exceeded Wall Street's forecasts.

About 7.53 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, more than the daily average so far this year of about 6.51 billion shares.

On the NYSE, decliners outnumbered advancers by a ratio of almost 9 to 1. On the Nasdaq, about four stocks fell for every one that rose.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson and Leah Schnurr; Editing by Jan Paschal)

Read More..

Microsoft leads Wall Street lower, but retailers gain

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Stocks extend losses after weekly drop on fiscal worry

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