Lawmakers play waiting game with "fiscal cliff" deadline in sight


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With only a week left before a deadline for the United States to go over a "fiscal cliff," lawmakers played a waiting game on Monday in the hope that someone will produce a plan to avoid harsh budget cuts and higher taxes for most Americans from New Year's Day.


Though Republicans and Democrats have spent the better part of a year describing a plunge off the cliff as a looming catastrophe, the nation's capital showed no outward signs of worry, let alone impending calamity.


The White House has set up shop in Hawaii, where President Barack Obama is vacationing.


The Capitol was deserted and the Treasury Department - which would have to do a lot of last-minute number-crunching with or without a deal - was closed.


So were all other federal government offices, with Obama having followed a tradition of declaring the Monday before a Tuesday Christmas a holiday for government employees, notwithstanding the approaching fiscal cliff.


Expectations for some 11th-hour rescue focused largely on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, in part because he has performed the role of legislative wizard in previous stalemates.


But McConnell, who is up for re-election in 2014, was shunning the role this year, his spokesman saying that it was now up to the Democrats in the Senate to make the next move.


"We don't yet know what Senator Reid will bring to the floor. He is not negotiating with us and the president is out of town," said McConnell's spokesman, referring to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat. "So I just don't know what they're going to do over there," he said.


Two-day-old tweets on leadership websites told the story insofar as it was visible to the public.


House Speaker John Boehner's referred everyone to McConnell. McConnell's tweet passed the responsibility along to Obama, saying it was a "moment that calls for presidential leadership."


Reid's tweet said: "There will be very serious consequences for millions of families if Congress fails to act" on the cliff.


The next session of the Senate is set for Thursday, but the issues presented by across-the-board tax hikes and indiscriminate reductions in government spending, were not on the calendar.


The House has nothing on its schedule for the week, but members have been told they could be called back at 48 hours notice, making a Thursday return a theoretical possibility.


However, aides to the Republican leaders in Congress said there were no talks with Democrats on Monday and none scheduled after negotiations fell off track last week when Boehner failed to persuade House Republicans to accept tax increases on incomes of more than $1 million a year.


"Nothing new, Merry Christmas," an aide to Boehner responded when asked if there was any movement on the fiscal cliff.


SCALED-BACK EXPECTATIONS


If there is some last-minute legislation, Republicans and Democrats agreed on Sunday news shows that it will not be any sort of "grand bargain" encompassing taxes and spending cuts, but most likely a short-term deal putting everything off for a few weeks or months, thereby risking a negative market reaction.


A limited agreement would still need bipartisan support, as Obama has said he would veto a bill that does not raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans.


On Monday, Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison urged fellow Republicans to be flexible.


"We're now at a point where we're not going to get what we think is right for our economy and our country because we don't control government. So we've got to work within the system we have," she told MSNBC.


Two bills in Congress could conceivably form the basis for a last-minute stopgap measure.


Last spring, Republicans in the House passed a measure that would extend Bush-era tax cuts for everyone, reflecting the party's deep reluctance to increase taxes.


The Democratic-controlled Senate passed a bill in August, extending lower tax rates for everyone except the wealthiest Americans - a group defined at that point as households with a net income of $250,000 or above. Obama has since increased that to $400,000 a year, in an effort to win Republican support.


Analysts say Democrats might be able to get the backing of enough Republicans in both the House and Senate, especially if they are willing to raise the number to $500,000.


Under that scenario, lawmakers might also put off spending cuts of $109 billion that would take effect from January and agree to Republican demands for cuts in entitlement programs such as Medicare and Medicaid, the government-run health insurance plans for seniors and the poor.


However, with only a few work days left in Congress after Christmas, there is a good chance that no deal can be worked out and tax rates would then go up, at least briefly, until an agreement is reached in Washington.


"We may go off the cliff on January 1, but we would correct that very quickly thereafter," Democratic Representative John Yarmuth told MSNBC.


The prospects of the United States going over the fiscal cliff dampened enthusiasm on Wall Street for a "Santa rally" in the holiday season, when stocks traditionally rise.


The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 51.76 points, or 0.39 percent, in Monday's shortened holiday session.


Failure to work out tax rates in the coming days would cause chaos at the Internal Revenue Service, said analyst Chris Krueger of Guggenheim Securities.


"Next weekend is going to be a total, total debacle," he said. The IRS is unlikely to have enough time to revise its tables for withholding taxes.


"The withholding tables are sort of like an aircraft carrier, you can't turn the thing on a dime." he said.


(Additional reporting by Alina Selyukh, Patrick Temple-West and David Lawder; Editing by Alistair Bell, Fred Barbash and David Brunnstrom)



Read More..

Egyptians back new constitution in referendum


CAIRO (Reuters) - An Islamist-backed Egyptian constitution won approval in a referendum, rival camps said on Sunday, after a vote the opposition said would sow deep social divisions in the Arab world's most populous nation.


The Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, which propelled President Mohamed Mursi to power in a June election, said an unofficial tally showed 64 percent of voters backed the charter after two rounds of voting that ended with a final ballot on Saturday.


An opposition official also told Reuters their unofficial count showed the result was a "yes" vote, while party spokesmen said there had been a series of abuses during the voting.


The main opposition coalition, the National Salvation Front, responded to the defeat by saying it was moving towards forming a single political party to challenge the Islamists who have dominated the ballot box since strongman Hosni Mubarak was overthrown two years ago.


Members of the opposition, taking heart from a low turnout of about 30 percent of voters, pledged to keep up pressure on Mursi through peaceful protests and other democratic means.


"The referendum is not the end of the road," said Khaled Dawoud, a spokesman for the National Salvation Front. "It is only the beginning of a long struggle for Egypt's future."


The referendum committee may not declare official results for the two rounds until Monday, after hearing appeals. If the outcome is confirmed, a parliamentary election will follow in about two months.


Mursi's Islamist backers say the constitution is vital for the transition to democracy, nearly two years after Mubarak was ousted in a popular uprising. It will provide the stability needed to help a fragile economy, they say.


The constitution was "a historic opportunity to unite all national powers on the basis of mutual respect and honest dialogue for the sake of stabilizing the nation," the Brotherhood said in a statement.


RECIPE FOR UNREST


The opposition accuses Mursi of pushing through a text that favors Islamists and ignores the rights of Christians, who make up about 10 percent of the population, as well as women. They say it is a recipe for further unrest.


The opposition said voting in both rounds was marred by abuses. However, an official said the overall vote favored the charter.


"The majority is not big and the minority is not small," liberal politician Amr Hamzawy said, adding that the National Salvation Front would use "all peaceful, democratic means" such as protests to challenge the constitution.


The vote was split over two days as many judges had refused to supervise the ballot, making a single day of voting impossible.


During the build-up to the vote there were deadly protests, sparked by Mursi's decision to award himself extra powers in a November 22 decree and then to fast-track the constitutional vote.


The new basic law sets a limit of two four-year presidential terms. It says the principles of sharia, Islamic law, remain the main source of legislation but adds an article to explain this. It also says Islamic authorities will be consulted on sharia - a source of concern to Christians and others.


ABUSES


Rights groups reported what they said were illegalities in voting procedures. They said some polling stations opened late, that Islamists illegally campaigned at some polling places, and complained of irregularities in voter registration.


But the committee overseeing the two-stage vote said its investigations showed no major irregularities in voting on December 15, which covered about half of Egypt's 51 million voters. About 25 million were eligible to vote in the second round.


The Brotherhood said turnout was about a third of voters.


The opposition says the constitution will stir up more trouble on the streets since it has not received sufficiently broad backing for a document that should be agreed by consensus, and raised questions about the fairness of the vote.


In the first round, the district covering most of Cairo voted "no," which opponents said showed the depth of division.


"I see more unrest," said Ahmed Said, head of the liberal Free Egyptians Party and a member of the opposition Front.


He cited "serious violations" on the first day of voting, and said anger against Mursi was growing. "People are not going to accept the way they are dealing with the situation."


At least eight people were killed in protests outside the presidential palace in Cairo this month. Islamists and rivals clashed in Alexandria, the second-biggest city, on the eves of both voting days.


(Writing by Edmund Blair and Giles Elgood; editing by Philippa Fletcher)



Read More..

Sandy Hook Shootings: How to Cope









12/23/2012 at 06:00 PM EST







State police personnel lead children to safety away from the Sandy Hook Elementary School


Shannon Hicks/Newtown Bee/Reuters/Landov


The Sandy Hook massacre, in which 20 innocent children and six heroic elementary school faculty members were gunned down last Friday, is particularly difficult for people – even those thousands of miles away from Newtown, Conn. – to process, according to mental health experts.

"This tragedy is so deeply affecting the national psyche, reminding us of 9/11, because of its assault on Norman Rockwell's vision of America," psychiatrist Carole Lieberman tells PEOPLE.

Friday was proclaimed a national day of mourning for those lost a week ago, with a moment of silence called for at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time, as 26 churchbells rang in Newtown and elsewhere. In addition, First Lady Michelle Obama sent an open letter of condolence to the town, saying the entire nation "is holding you in our hearts."

But how do those directly involved with the tragedy find the strength to cope?

To do that, family members who lost loved ones need immediate counseling and to maintain their normal routines. They also need to draw support from other affected families who can relate to what they're going through, says Dr. Stephanie N. Marcy, a psychologist at Children's Hospital Los Angeles.

"I think the people on the ground are feeling a sense of hopelessness because there is no way to justify what happened," Marcy says. "They need to be around other people who have experienced and understand it. If you were all involved together, you can empathize and grieve together."

In many of these families, the remaining children might have survivor's guilt, she adds.

"They rethink what they did that day and wonder if they in some way contributed to the death of a sibling, or they wonder, why did I survive?" Marcy says.

Therapists will need to explain to kids who lost a sibling that their "false belief that they should have been able to prevent it is not correct," adds Marcy.

Children at Sandy Hook may also have Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and will need therapy, Lieberman says.

What to Tell Children

And what do parents whose children were not involved in the tragedy tell their own youngsters about what happened? That, Marcy says, depends on how old they are and how much they know already.

"Kindergarteners and first graders don't need to be told about it unless you think they will hear it somewhere else. For older kids, you have to get to know what they know, answer any questions they might have, and be truthful – but don't say too much," Marcy says. "Say that a person who was having problems, that was sick, went into a school and injured some people for no particular reason. Tell them it would never happen at their school."

"Yes," she adds, "it could happen anywhere. But there's no point in letting your child think that, [because] they may be flooded with fear."

For the adults and children across the country who have been vicariously traumatized, Marcy says, "We need to regain our sense of control, because this type of event makes us feel completely helpless."

Lieberman adds that Americans "are also feeling a generalized anxiety, a fear that no place is safe anymore. They need to talk to friends and family, get involved in championing causes that make society better, to volunteer for charities, and to get psychotherapy if the sadness and anxiety persist."

Read More..

Asian shares steady, U.S. budget concerns weigh

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares steadied in quiet pre-holiday trade after a slump late last week, but markets have become more jittery about the risk of the United States failing to avert a fiscal crisis.


Activity in other assets was also subdued, with spot gold steadying as investors took to the sidelines, while oil extended losses, with U.S. crude inching down 0.2 percent to remain below $89 a barrel while Brent futures also eased 0.2 percent to $108.78.


MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was up 0.07 percent after falling to a near two-week low on Friday when House of Representatives Speak John Boehner failed to gain support for a tax plan, raising fears the U.S. may not be able to avert the "fiscal cliff" of automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to start January 1.


The White House on Friday tried to rescue stalled talks but there was little headway as lawmakers and President Barack Obama abandoned Washington for Christmas.


Many market players still expect both sides to reach a compromise before the year-end deadline but heightening tensions were likely to stifle trade already slowed by the holidays.


U.S. Treasuries gained a safety bid on Friday from fiscal cliff worries, which put many investors on edge and drove down global equities markets, the euro and oil futures.


Australian shares <.axjo> were up 0.2 percent but trade was extremely thin, with Monday's session shortened ahead of the two-day Christmas holiday and many players already away.


South Korean shares <.ks11> edged up 0.1 percent in light trading before Christmas Day, with the weakening Japanese yen and U.S. fiscal uncertainty keeping investors uneasy.


"With a dearth of good news, shares will undergo corrections in the final week of this year, albeit within a limited range" said Park Hyeong-joong, an analyst at Meritz Securities.


"A chance is growing that the U.S. fiscal issue will not be resolved by this year-end," Park said.


Japanese financial markets are closed for a public holiday and will resume trading on Tuesday.


The dollar inched up 0.2 percent to 84.38 yen, having fallen below 84 yen on Friday. The dollar hit a 20-month high of 84.62 yen on December 19.


The yen has been pressured by expectations the Bank of Japan will be compelled to adopt more drastic monetary stimulus measures next year as incoming prime minister Shinzo Abe has demanded bolder action by the central bank to bring Japan out of decades-long deflation.


Abe stepped up pressure over the weekend, saying on Japanese television on Sunday that he will try to revise a law guaranteeing the BOJ's independence if his demand for a binding inflation target is not met.


Currency speculators increased their bets against the U.S. dollar in the latest week, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday. Bets against the yen fell after reaching a more than five-year peak.


But market players generally see the dollar staying firm for now as a U.S. fiscal impasse will likely continue to sap investor appetite for risky assets and raise the dollar's safe-haven appeal.


"It looks like all momentum for the fiscal cliff negotiations is gone," said Rob Ryan, strategist for RBS in Singapore. While the dollar could sway by year-end flows, "on balance I would see a stronger U.S. dollar into the end of the year," Ryan said.


EPFR Global, a fund-tracking firm, said on Friday that investors around the world pulled $4.1 billion from bond funds worldwide during the week ending December 19, the most since August 2011, and favored riskier stock exchange-traded funds despite the U.S. budget worry.


ETFs are generally believed to represent the behavior of institutional investors, and can be used opportunistically to bet on various indexes.


The euro stood steady around $1.3180.


In Italy, Mario Monti announced on Sunday he would consider seeking a second term as Italian prime minister if approached by allies committed to backing his austere brand of reforms. Monti resigned on Friday but has faced growing calls to seek a second term at a parliamentary election on February 24-25.


At stake is the leadership of the world's eighth largest economy, where recession and public debt of more than 2 trillion ($2.6 billion) have aggravated investor concerns about growth and stability in the euro zone.


Italy faces a huge bond redemption in the first quarter of 2013 and its failure to secure funding could refuel concerns about sovereign financing not only in Italy but also similarly indebted Spain, hurting sentiment towards the euro.


(Additional reporting by Hyunjoo Jin in Seoul and Masayuki Kitano in Singapore; Editing by Eric Meijer)



Read More..

Egypt constitution approved in vote, say rival camps


CAIRO (Reuters) - A constitution drafted by an Islamist-dominated assembly was approved by a majority of Egyptians in a referendum, rival camps said on Sunday, after a vote the opposition said drove a wedge through the Arab world's most populous nation.


The Muslim Brotherhood, which propelled President Mohamed Mursi to power in a June election, said 64 percent of voters backed the charter after two rounds of voting that ended with a final ballot on Saturday. It cited an unofficial tally.


An opposition official also told Reuters their unofficial count showed the result was a "yes" vote.


The referendum committee may not declare official results for the two rounds until Monday, after hearing appeals. If the outcome is confirmed, a parliamentary election will follow in about two months.


Mursi's Islamist backers say the constitution is vital for the transition to democracy, nearly two years after the overthrow of autocrat Hosni Mubarak in an uprising. It will provide stability needed to help a fragile economy, they say.


But the opposition accuses Mursi of pushing through a text that favors Islamists and ignores the rights of Christians, who make up about 10 percent of the population, as well as women. They say it is a recipe for further unrest.


"According to our calculations, the final result of the second round is 71 percent voting 'yes' and the overall result (of the two rounds) is 63.8 percent," a Brotherhood official, who was in an operations room monitoring the vote, told Reuters.


His figures were confirmed by a statement issued shortly afterwards by the group and broadcast on its television channel.


The Brotherhood and its party, as well as members of the opposition, had representatives monitoring polling stations and the vote count across the country.


The opposition said voting in both rounds was marred by abuses and had called for a re-run after the first stage. However, an official said the overall vote favored the charter.


"They (Islamists) are ruling the country, running the vote and influencing the people, so what else could we expect," the senior official from the main opposition coalition, the National Salvation Front, told Reuters.


PROTESTS


The vote was split over two days as many judges had refused to supervise the ballot.


"I'm voting 'no' because Egypt can't be ruled by one faction," said Karim Nahas, 35, a stockbroker, heading to a polling station in Giza, in greater Cairo, in the last round.


At another polling station, some voters said they were more interested in ending Egypt's long period of political instability than in the Islamist aspects of the charter.


"We have to extend our hands to Mursi to help fix the country," said Hisham Kamal, an accountant.


The build-up to the vote witnessed deadly protests, sparked by Mursi's decision to award himself extra powers in a decree on November 22 and then to fast-track the constitution to a vote.


Hours before polls closed, Vice President Mahmoud Mekky announced his resignation. He said he wanted to quit last month but stayed on to help Mursi tackle the crisis that blew up when the Islamist leader assumed wide powers.


Mekky, a prominent judge who said he was uncomfortable in politics, disclosed earlier he had not been informed of Mursi's power grab. The timing of his resignation appeared linked to the lack of a vice-presidential post under the draft constitution.


The new basic law sets a limit of two four-year presidential terms. It says the principles of Islamist sharia law remain the main source of legislation but adds an article to explain this. It also says Islamic authorities will be consulted on sharia - a source of concern to Christians and others.


TURNOUT


Rights groups reported what they said were illegalities in voting procedures. They said some polling stations opened late, that Islamists illegally campaigned at some polling places and complained of irregularities in voter registration.


But the committee overseeing the two-stage vote said its investigations showed no major irregularities in voting on December 15, which covered about half of Egypt's 51 million voters. About 25 million were eligible to vote in the second round.


The Brotherhood said turnout was about a third of voters.


The opposition says the constitution will stir up more trouble on the streets since it has not received sufficiently broad backing for a document that should be agreed by consensus, and raised questions about the fairness of the vote.


In the first round, the district covering most of Cairo voted "no," which opponents said showed the depth of division.


"I see more unrest," said Ahmed Said, head of the liberal Free Egyptians Party and a member of the National Salvation Front, an opposition coalition formed after Mursi expanded his powers on November 22 and then pushed the constitution to a vote.


He cited "serious violations" on the first day of voting, and said anger against Mursi was growing. "People are not going to accept the way they are dealing with the situation."


At least eight people were killed in protests outside the presidential palace in Cairo this month. Islamists and rivals clashed in Alexandria, the second-biggest city, on the eves of both voting days.


Late on Saturday, Mursi announced the names of 90 new members he had appointed to the upper house of parliament, state media reported, and a presidential official said the list was mainly liberals and other non-Islamists.


A spokesman for the National Salvation Front, which groups opponents who include liberals, socialists and other parties and politicians, said the Front's members had refused to take part.


Legislative powers, now held by Mursi because the lower house of parliament was dissolved earlier this year, will pass to the upper house under the new constitution.


Two-thirds of the 270-member upper house was elected in a vote this year, with one third appointed by the president. Mursi, elected in June, had not named them until now. Mursi's Islamist party and its allies dominate the assembly.


(Writing by Edmund Blair and Giles Elgood; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Todd Eastham)



Read More..

Facebook Poke App Is Frustrating as Hell






Facebook Poke: Startup Screen


Poke, the new iPhone app from Facebook, lets you send short messages, photos and videos to friends that automatically self destruct after a few seconds. If you have the Facebook app on your phone already, logging in is effortless.


Click here to view this gallery.






[More from Mashable: 2012′s Biggest Winners and Losers]


I was never a big poker on Facebook. When I joined the social network in 2007, giving someone a “poke” was still pretty common. It was a connection that stopped short of an actual friend request, a way to test the waters of a reconnection with, say, an ex.


The new app, Facebook Poke (as it’s listed in the App Store), doesn’t have much in common with poking of old. It’s essentially a clone of other texting apps where all the messages have a built-in self-destruct. It’s ideal for clandestine activities, shall we say.


[More from Mashable: Facebook Introduces Snapchat Competitor, Poke]


Here’s how it works: Let’s say you have a sudden urge to send one of your Facebook friends a photo of a, er, cucumber. But you don’t want to just send them a cucumber pic that they could post and re-share to the world. Poke lets you send the pic, but the recipient will only have 1, 3, 5 or 10 seconds to view your majestic vegetable. And they need to press and hold the screen while viewing, or the pic goes away.


You can send photos, videos or text messages via Poke, although you can’t use it for anything too elaborate since the message content lasts 10 seconds maximum. After that, boom. The message, whatever it was, is gone forever. There isn’t even a record on the sender’s phone (although a log of who you’ve poked and who’s poked you still remains).


Poke is pretty unforgiving. The recipient must press and hold the notification to see the content. Once you touch, the countdown starts, and there’s no going back — even if you let go. Videos just stop, with no chance of re-watching. You slip, and you’re done.


I suspect Poke will engender a lot of frustration because of this limitation. You feel as if it should at least pause the countdown when you remove your finger.


The app also lets you just “poke” people — meaning send a message with no content — about the only way the app is similar to the old act of poking. Those are just simple notifications, and don’t expire.


It gets more annoying: All your poke recipients need to download the app to see them. Poking only works on mobile right now, and Facebook’s been careful to ensure notifications for incoming pokes only appear in its mobile apps.


Checking out your profile on the web won’t reveal any trace of poking. On a smartphone, a note appears that encourages pokees to download the app.


What if someone does a screengrab of your poke, turning it into something more permanent? There’s nothing you can do, but the app will inform you if someone does that, with a “flash” icon beside their name in your feed. If you see your ephemeral wild moment appear on Tumblr the next day, at least you’ll know who to blame.


Poke isn’t that intuitive. It displays some basic instructions when you first log in, but would benefit greatly from one of those tutorial overlays that have become ubiquitous among iOS apps. Also, I find it odd that your front-facing camera isn’t selected by default. But maybe my expectation for the subject material of most pokes is off the mark.


You can add text and colored line drawings to any pics you send. That’s helpful to get the attention on the thing in the photo you really want the person to look at in those three seconds of poke life.


At first I found it frustrating that Poke doesn’t let you take horizontal photos or videos. But that’s actually a good idea. If you think about it, if the only people seeing this content are people glancing at their phones for a few seconds, so vertical pics make total sense. In the time it took a person to turn their phone and the accelerometer to react, the message will probably be gone. If you want masterpieces, try Flickr.


Bottom line: Poke is an annoying app, but it probably has more to do with the nature of what it’s trying to do than any design flaws. How do you like Poke? Let us know in the comments.


Image courtesy of iStockphoto, jcsmily


This story originally published on Mashable here.


Tech News Headlines – Yahoo! News





Title Post: Facebook Poke App Is Frustrating as Hell
Rating:
100%

based on 99998 ratings.
5 user reviews.
Author: Fluser SeoLink
Thanks for visiting the blog, If any criticism and suggestions please leave a comment




Read More..

Drew Barrymore: My Dogs Are So Protective of Baby Olive






Only on People.com








12/22/2012 at 05:30 PM EST







Drew Barrymore, Will Kopelman and dog Douglas


NPG


She may have been a nervous wreck after baby Olive arrived this fall, but the Drew Barrymore could have rested easy because her dogs had everything under control.

"They're so protective of her. They're so sweet," she tells PEOPE of her pups, Douglas and shepherd mix Oliver. "And Douglas, the little blonde one, just comes and licks [Olive's] head, and it's just so goofy and silly and I always say, 'Douglas, is this your baby?' "

The first-time mom, 37, and her husband Will Kopelman were careful when it came to introducing their furbabies to the real baby.

"We brought her stuff home to them to sniff and play with," she tells PEOPLE. "I put her with them right away. I was holding her and protective but there are all these wonderful studies that kids that grow up with dogs have better immunities because of the dander and the pollen. And it's a proven fact that dogs just improve the quality of your life."

In just a few months, Douglas has assumed the role of bodyguard over 10-week-old Olive, whom Barrymore calls "Super Baby" because she sleeps and eats so well.

"He's literally sitting [and] looking out the window," she says, "in, like, a guard dog position."

Read More..

Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy


CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.


Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.


But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.


"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.


Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.


Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)


Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.


Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.


"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."


The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."


In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:


—Previous violent or aggressive behavior


—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse


—Guns in the home


—Use of drugs or alcohol


—Brain damage from a head injury


Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.


Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.


Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.


According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.


Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.


Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.


And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.


All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.


Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.


Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.


Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.


___


Online:


American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org


___


AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner


Read More..

Wall Street Week Ahead: A lump of coal for "Fiscal Cliff-mas"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street traders are going to have to pack their tablets and work computers in their holiday luggage after all.


A traditionally quiet week could become hellish for traders as politicians in Washington are likely to fall short of an agreement to deal with $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in early next year. Many economists forecast that this "fiscal cliff" will push the economy into recession.


Thursday's debacle in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner failed to secure passage of his own bill that was meant to pressure President Obama and Senate Democrats, only added to worry that the protracted budget talks will stretch into 2013.


Still, the market remains resilient. Friday's decline on Wall Street, triggered by Boehner's fiasco, was not enough to prevent the S&P 500 from posting its best week in four.


"The markets have been sort of taking this in stride," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago, which has about $38 billion in assets under management.


"The markets still basically believe that something will be done," he said.


If something happens next week, it will come in a short time frame. Markets will be open for a half-day on Christmas Eve, when Congress will not be in session, and will close on Tuesday for Christmas. Wall Street will resume regular stock trading on Wednesday, but volume is expected to be light throughout the rest of the week with scores of market participants away on a holiday break.


For the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 <.spx> up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> up 1.7 percent.


Stocks also have booked solid gains for the year so far, with just five trading sessions left in 2012: The Dow has advanced 8 percent, while the S&P 500 has climbed 13.7 percent and the Nasdaq has jumped 16 percent.


IT COULD GET A LITTLE CRAZY


Equity volumes are expected to fall sharply next week. Last year, daily volume on each of the last five trading days dropped on average by about 49 percent, compared with the rest of 2011 - to just over 4 billion shares a day exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT in the final five sessions of the year from a 2011 daily average of 7.9 billion.


If the trend repeats, low volumes could generate a spike in volatility as traders keep track of any advance in the cliff talks in Washington.


"I'm guessing it's going to be a low volume week. There's not a whole lot other than the fiscal cliff that is going to continue to take the headlines," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.


"A lot of people already have a foot out the door, and with the possibility of some market-moving news, you get the possibility of increased volatility."


Economic data would have to be way off the mark to move markets next week. But if the recent trend of better-than-expected economic data holds, stocks will have strong fundamental support that could prevent selling from getting overextended even as the fiscal cliff negotiations grind along.


Small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed their larger peers in the last couple of months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward the U.S. economy. The S&P MidCap 400 Index <.mid> overcame a technical level by confirming its close above 1,000 for a second week.


"We view the outperformance of the mid-caps and the break of that level as a strong sign for the overall market," Schaeffer's Bell said.


"Whenever you have flight to risk, it shows investors are beginning to have more of a risk appetite."


Evidence of that shift could be a spike in shares in the defense sector, expected to take a hit as defense spending is a key component of the budget talks.


The PHLX defense sector index <.dfx> hit a historic high on Thursday, and far outperformed the market on Friday with a dip of just 0.26 percent, while the three major U.S. stock indexes finished the day down about 1 percent.


Following a half-day on Wall Street on Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday, Wednesday will bring the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It is expected to show a ninth-straight month of gains.


U.S. jobless claims on Thursday are seen roughly in line with the previous week's level, with the forecast at 360,000 new filings for unemployment insurance, compared with the previous week's 361,000.


(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: rodrigo.campos(at)thomsonreuters.com)


(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)



Read More..

Venezuela's VP Maduro a "poor copy" of Chavez: opposition


CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela's opposition mocked President Hugo Chavez's chosen successor Nicolas Maduro on Friday as a "poor copy" of his boss who should be promoting national unity rather than insulting opponents during a delicate time for the South American nation.


In power since 1999, Chavez named vice president and foreign minister Maduro as his preferred replacement should he be incapacitated by the cancer he is battling in Cuba.


Since the December 11 operation, Maduro, 50, a former bus driver and union leader who shares Chavez's socialist politics, has been fronting day-to-day government in Venezuela while the president has been neither seen nor heard from in public.


Though lacking Chavez's booming charisma, Maduro has borrowed elements of his style - speaking regularly and lengthily on live TV, inaugurating public works, rallying supporters and attacking "bourgeois" opponents at every turn.


He even used one of Chavez's old catch phrases to gloat that Sunday's regional vote, where Chavez allies won 20 of 23 governorships, smashed the opposition into "cosmic dust."


The opposition Democratic Unity coalition reacted angrily.


"Vice President Nicolas Maduro has begun his temporary rule badly," it said in a withering statement, accusing him of ignoring Venezuela's pressing social, economic and political problems while falling back on antagonistic speeches.


"Mr. Maduro, the country expects better from you than a bad imitation of your boss. ... In his rhetoric, Maduro hides the leadership crisis in government given President Chavez's absence. He hides his weakness with shouts and threats."


"Don't waste the opportunity to create a wide national consensus," the statement said.


After an extraordinary year - in which Chavez proclaimed himself cured from the cancer that has dogged him since mid-2011, won a presidential election, then disappeared for new surgery - Venezuelans are heading into an uncertain 2013.


Government officials say Chavez, 58, is lucid and recovering in a hospital, but have acknowledged he is still suffering a respiratory infection after his operation and needs total rest.


Speculation is rife that his condition is life-threatening, and there is uncertainty over whether Chavez will be able to return to start his new term on January 10.


IN-FIGHTING?


The stakes are huge in Venezuela's political drama.


Beyond its borders, Venezuela helps sustain an alliance of left-wing Latin American governments from Cuba to Bolivia via oil subsidies and other economic aid.


Should Chavez be forced to vacate power, a new election would be held within 30 days, with the probable scenario a straight competition between Maduro and opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who lost to Chavez in the October vote.


There are rumors of in-fighting within "Chavismo" - the wide movement of military men and hard-left ideologues that has ruled for the last 14 years. Yet in public, the senior figures have repeatedly vowed unity and loyalty to Chavez.


Apart from Maduro, the two most powerful men are Congress head Diosdado Cabello and Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez.


"You know, there is a campaign from abroad and by the national right wing to try and divide us," Maduro said in one of a string of speeches on Friday at ceremonies to celebrate the pro-Chavez governors' election wins.


"Every day, they say we're fighting, that Diosdado is Joseph Stalin and I am Leon Trotsky. Ridiculous, ridiculous and more ridiculous! ... We've never been more united."


Cabello, a former military comrade of Chavez viewed by Venezuelans as the hard man in government with possible presidential ambitions of his own, stirred controversy this week by suggesting that the January 10 inauguration date could be delayed to accommodate Chavez's recovery.


Confusion over that and any tensions within the ruling Socialist Party threaten to create a difficult transition to any post-Chavez government in the OPEC nation with the world's largest crude oil reserves.


Former soldier Chavez has vastly expanded presidential powers and built a near-cult following among millions of poor Venezuelans, who love his feisty language and pouring of funds into welfare projects in the nation's slums.


Smarting from defeats in the presidential and state polls in quick succession, the opposition coalition is trying to keep Venezuelans' attention on a raft of unresolved problems, from a soaring black market in currency to rampant crime.


"The economy is in dust. Citizens' security is in dust. Public services are in dust. The only thing that isn't is corruption in government," the coalition statement said.


(Additional reporting by Daniela Desantis in Asuncion; editing by Todd Eastham)



Read More..